Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 54502.678670 57759.825985 61024.507313 64539.606218 68214.704970 71940.999416 76002.171479
2024-10-20 48976.671884 53918.880783 59020.057613 64670.246873 70744.714109 77070.450466 84147.268794
2024-10-27 44831.074272 50874.348891 57258.399011 64487.518078 72428.356295 80867.469947 90496.195455
2024-11-03 42510.089593 49463.359282 56949.944336 65581.152083 75227.527175 85646.624861 97720.659119
2024-11-10 40467.526773 48137.935611 56535.876328 66370.273108 77526.655672 89745.044887 104092.501568
2024-11-17 38500.288205 46732.487964 55883.807491 66752.942159 79249.466556 93105.846577 109568.269843
2024-11-24 36531.706468 45192.270930 54957.876816 66709.813286 80389.355016 95730.411269 114152.248999
2024-12-01 34989.427364 44051.615411 54405.246564 67015.596615 81860.579137 98680.471337 119073.273235
2024-12-08 33445.478462 42823.655673 53673.751679 67040.700865 82944.665564 101139.179434 123397.909871
2024-12-15 32544.560441 42313.030923 53743.916734 67972.018894 85062.612698 104783.525997 129102.907000
2024-12-22 31115.371573 41093.046607 52904.804459 67761.096471 85778.516236 106749.152052 132816.794716
2024-12-29 30505.309551 40847.286897 53215.653017 68914.559960 88113.774203 110627.751913 138807.309795
2025-01-05 29575.812236 40182.129434 53002.919761 69431.803951 89699.173753 113650.555275 143843.030045
2025-01-12 28477.328977 39262.916685 52441.803491 69491.869146 90709.142886 115977.227310 148054.828956
2025-01-19 27322.517499 38226.618835 51693.795669 69282.275288 91357.438158 117846.565796 151706.433029
2025-01-26 26871.855679 38077.158454 52045.215767 70436.983330 93690.219068 121773.709420 157882.577316
2025-02-02 26308.296358 37754.874013 52156.015435 71271.721380 95615.923882 125204.448513 163467.884088
2025-02-09 25590.778212 37201.215148 51945.567183 71676.660465 96987.864305 127947.864865 168215.151006
2025-02-16 24721.124239 36413.517539 51404.058496 71630.977724 97769.705486 129947.437751 172040.484003
2025-02-23 24051.670694 35871.491875 51162.141965 71954.647305 99009.716617 132515.078257 176580.380925
2025-03-02 23296.222456 35186.430493 50708.500846 71981.218495 99852.834144 134576.290800 180488.362713
2025-03-09 22958.401037 35062.452851 50989.753417 72966.923504 101934.613743 138210.793653 186397.831620
2025-03-16 22169.023923 34285.607781 50373.596762 72743.697005 102428.746523 139819.585471 189744.392866